P(doom) interactive chart

Published on October 25, 2026 9:09 AM GMT TL;DR: I compiled 43 published estimates of AI catastrophic and existential risk into an interactive page: Forecasts of AI Loss-of-Control & Existential Risk. Summary: Inspired by Tom Cunningham’s compilation of forecasts of AI & economic growth, I asked Claude to help compile forecasts of catastrophic risk from AI. The page includes estimates from AI experts and researchers (28), AI lab founders/CEOs (4, from 3 people), superforecasters (4) and others (7: other forecasters, philosophers, commentators). The compilation is not exclusive - I'm sure I've