What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026?

Last October, famed coder Andrej Karpathy called AI agents “slop.” Two months later he completely reversed his view, describing them as “alien tools” that are “rocking the profession.” He was far from alone in his whiplash. Six months ago, host Rob Wiblin set out to explain why AI experts then had longer and longer timelines to AGI. By the time he clicked publish, a huge vibe shift was well underway. Evidence of AI acceleration has piled up since: • Models now complete software engineering tasks that would take human professionals a full day — improving faster than our measurements can even